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Home My WebLink AboutCBC 1 20 17.PowerPoint2/a/2017 BUDGET DISCUSSION JAN UARY 20, 2017 CITIZENS' BUDGET COMMITTEE T-2016 Actual - Unaudited Analysis • General Fund/Fine & Forfeiture • Balance Forward • FY 2017 Budget • Use of Balance Forward • Budget Stabilization Fund • Reserves • Commitments - Budgeted/Unbudgeted • Economic Condition -Future Growth • Future Challenges • Next Steps COUNTY n f L 0 R D z/a/2o17 • Next Steps • Questions & Answers Economic Condition -Future Growth COUNTY n i L 0 R D z/a/2o17 conomic Outlook -Future Growth Key Factors of Economic Growth Chart Name Federal State Local Economic Growth (GDP) X X Personal Income X X Population X X Home Values X X Unemployment Rate X X X Foreclosures X Bldg. Permits & Values Unite m i c Growth Chart 1. Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2015:IV-2016:1, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates RpG4y MOyntiln NV 0.0 ' •wr wtiwt oe sa _ sn..[n/tee f o.s Now CnglwnA 1.3 Orsw[lwFss N/ VT 3.V O.7 / 13 Ml1.0 i_O W w! 1.e a4 ny a6 ra GT 1.e a! OH FA 1.6 NJ m 1A 0C a] 1e gD DC21 2.1 to 3.9 1.7 to 2.1 [� 0.5 to 1.7 0 -0.6 to o.5 -11.4 to -0.6 5 U.S. Bureau or Economic Anaysfs Source: The Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research, Florida: An Economic Overview, November 1, 2016 6 3 2/8/2017 Uni Personal Income: Percent Change, 2016:Q1-2016:Q2 U-S-growth rate = 1-0 percent 1-2 to 1-5 1.1 to 1.2 - 1.0 to 1.1 Q 0.9 to l.o C7 0.4 to 0.9 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: The Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research, Florida: An Economic Overview, [November 1, 2016 Populatinnjjor-�& St Lucie County 500,000 27,000,000 24,099,828.0 450,000 • 20,271,272 �' 22,000,000 400,000 18,166,990 18,652,644 19,355,257 �1117�,004,0815 350,000 16,047,515 C 300,000 17,000,000 c m i0 7 a 250,000 a. 12,000,000 200,000 H •C 36 7,000,000 ^p, 150,000 28 20 29 00 2515 27 64 100,000 19 95 21 98 2,000,000 50,000 0 - (3,000,000) 00 O'ti Oti OM Oh Oy Ob O^ 00 Oq ,ti0 .ti'ti titi 13 ti� ,tih ea ea ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 �St. Lucie Florida otio4to, otiyesol Sources: U.S. Census Bureau - QuickFacts - St Lucie County and Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse - Regional & Local Profile: Results - Housing Profile- St Lucie County, Florida Population Projections Federal Reserve Economic Data: Resident Population in Florida-https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLPOP 7 8 4 2/8/2017 Median Si Family Home Values: or& St. Lucie County Median St. Lucie County Home Values $250,000 $204,000 $200,000 $184,SS0 $169,S00 $173,800 $1S1,2S0 $1S4,100 $156,250 $150,000 $138,600 $139,9S0 $133,688 $120,000 $100,000 $99,190 $95,000 $100,000 $50,000 — $- Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 � S[ Lucie Florida Sources: St. Lucie County EDC - Key Economic Indicators 9 Zillowcom - http://www.zillow.com/research/data/#median-home-value en a es - v. 2016 Unemployment Rate (%) 10 5 2/8/2017 oun y ore April 2014-March 2016 St. Lucie County Foreclosures 3,0002,872 2,800 2,584 2,6002 716 2,400 2,251 2,233 2,425 2,089 2,200 2,034 1,971 2,000 2,173 1,�51,7022,0002,062 2,006 �171,914 1,912 1,5341,600 1,400 �32 1,598 1,292 1,492 1,200 , 1,214 1,000 1h 'tih 'tiDc 1y 1h 1y 1y 1h 1y 1h 1y 1y 1h '15 1y Nb 1IO 1b N N 1b 1b 1�O 1b N N Q �0,, �eCi �,s0 4Q.� _AO�• P4�• AO� �Jr 1� C C• PJ�• cC O,& _`O LPL 4 4e _Aar. PQS. Aa� le �`. PJ�. SeQ. O yO,. 'd' C C• V' �Foreclos`ures Source: St. Lucie County Clerk of Court- Recording Division and Civil Courts - Probate Division 11 St. Lucie County Single Family Homes- P ermit Values 2010-2017 10,000 9,000 160.0 i 9,000 8,182, 110 140.0 8,000 7,409 120.0 7,000 6,579 m 6,000 5,937 703 100.0 Pam. 7 m 4,9S9 5,000 80.0 F, 4,400 w 4,000 60.0 a o 3,000 40.0 2,000 1,000 20.0 0 - 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Projected Building Permits ♦Permit Value Source: St. Lucie County Planning & Development Services - Building and Code Regulation - Zoning & Permitting 12 M. 2/8/2017 Tax Taxable Value 30 25.6 25 24.4 21.6 20 - 17. 17 15.2 15.1 15.6 0 15 •\.� 4 14.�....... ' m 10 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 40 2017 39.25% 40.00% $30,000,000,000 30.00% 28.58% $25,000,000,000 20.00% $20,000,000,000 7.32% 10.00% 3.15°/n 4.26% 1.63% 4.67% 0.00% $15,000,000,000 -10.00% $10,000,000,00090% -16.64%-20.00% -20.90% $5,000,000,000-30.00% FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 TAXABLE VALUES t%CHANGE OF COUNTY -WIDE PROPERTY VALUES 7 2/8/2017 Millage Rate History — GF_ 7 out of 11 years the Millage has $8 $7 7.4426 6.69121 remained steady or decreased 6.8406 T 6.8920 t 6.8920. 6.8920 —r _ 6.16511 6.1651 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 15 Jill ''I I bi'aFY15Vs $800.00 $722.59 $700.00 $600.00 $586.67 $500.00 $426.88 $419.45 $397.72 $400.00 $319.86 $300.00 $278.69 $221.73 $200.00 $163.02 $100.00 Martin Indian River Osceola Alachua St Lucie Escambria Lake Leon Marion ■ 2015 Ad Valorem Per Capita ❑ 2016 Ad Valorem Per Capita 16 2/8/2017 General Fund Non -Ad Valorem Major Revenue Outlook 4500000 4,068,468 4000000 4, 67,41 3,642,779 3500000 2,840,796 3,395, 3,195,544 3,262, 3000000 2,642,335 3,070, 2 715,578 2,50f 2500000 .394,816 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 Actual Actual Ac ,,,I Actual Actual Budget Adopted FY11 FY12 FYI 3 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 ■ State Revenue Sharing 0 Half Cent Sales Tax FY 2016 Actual - Unaudited Analysis 2/8/2017 V1V /"fit.I UML — VIMMUVI I LV General Fund,/Fine & Forfeiture Description FY 16 Proiection Actuals Difference Operating Revenue $141,641,254 $143,938,799 $2,297,545 Operating Expenses 149,620,165 146,082,910 $3,537,255 Deficit Spending ($7,978,911) ($2,144,111) $5,834,800 Variance Analysis: Revenue: Ad Valorem taxes were collected at 96% of the budget which is consistent with historical trends. Revenues were budgeted at 95%, many of our revenue collections exceeded this threshold. Additional unplanned Transfers were made. Transfer for County Capital to General Fund due to the Supervisor of Elections Building project being deleted, Solid Waste transfer was for items during midyear, and Transfer of responsibility from Erosion District to General Fund for the maintenance of Coastal Lands. Expenses: Constitutional Officers An increase in Excess Fees was realized over and above the projection ($700,000) Operating Expenses Aid to Agencies and Organizations job Growth Investment Grant was under projected and balance is carry over to 2017. Mandates Inmate Medical was less than anticipated due to 2016 experience, we are awaiting final 2016 invoices. Balance Forward Beginning Fund Balance @ $63,148,589 10/01/2015 Plus FY 2015-2016 Operating $143,938,799 Revenues Less FY 2015-2016 Operating $146,082,910 Expenses Ending Fund Balance $61,004,478 09/30/2016 Est. Fund Balance in the 2017 $56,439,037 Budget Difference +/(-) $4,565,441 COUNTY n f L 0 R D 19 20 10 2/8/2017 FUND/FINE & FORFEITURE FY 2010 TO FY 2016 IN MILLIONS 120 S6.8o 100 80 60 Combine $24.20 $112.3M Combined Combined $19.00 f $12.40 40 S69.5M $63.2M Combined $60.9M 20 0 FY 2010 Beginning FY 2014 Ending Bal. FY 2015 Ending Bal. FY 2016 Ending Bal. Bal. ■ Gen. Fund ❑ Fine & Forfeit ® Combined Use of Balance Forward - Reserves & Deficit Spending Description Amount 2016 Fund Balance $60.9 Million Less: Prior Period Expenses $0 Million Less: Reserves $36.50 Million Net Balance $24.4 Million Less: 2017 Deficit Spending $9.51 Million Budget Stabilization Balance $14.89 Million COUNTY n i L 0 R D 21 22 11 2/8/2017 FY2017Budget 23 Commitments - Budaeted Committed Funding $8.3M 1. Sheriff's Office Increases $ 3.12M 2. Constitutional Offices $ 0.53M 3. Medical Examiner $ 0.12M 4. Community Redevelopment Agencies $ 0.48M 5. Board Employee Health Ins. $ 1.58M 6. Medicaid $ 0.35M 7. Board Dept. Increases $ 1.92M 8. Health Department $ 0.20M Sub -Total 8.3M Net Balance $ 0.00 12 2/8/2017 FY Commitments - Budgeted Board Employee Health Ins. (1.58M) Increase in funding provides: • Allocation of $1,580,000 is an investment in making the Health Insurance fund self sustainable. • This increase impacts the budgets of the Board departments funded by the General Fund/Fine & Forfeiture Fund, Clerk of Court, Supervisor of Elections, property Appraiser and Tax Collector. Medicaid (.35M) Increase in funding provides: • The County's contribution increased in FY 2016 by $350,000. The allocation provides funding to reimburse the State of Florida for a portion of Medicaid expenses._ Health Department $ 0.2M Increase in support for the Health Department efforts to improve the health o cI izens 25 FY Commitments - Budgeted Board Dept. Increase (1.92M) Increase in funding provides: • Investment of $1.92 million to various Board department enhancements: • An increase of $1.2 million in Information Technology. These increases were for PC replacement ($350k), Banner Enterprise System Upgrade ($155k), Core Network Switch ($200k), Licenses for Microsoft software ($125k), Communication Data Circuits ($90k), and other technology needs (Software, network router, and training needs) ($300k). • Parks ($87k) increases for various parks needs including an Aerial Lift • Marine Safety ($90k) for positions and an ATV. • Veteran Services ($52.5k) to fund a Sr. Staff Assistant to cover front office operations • Extension ($52.2k) to fund a Community Resource Development agent and a part-time Staff Assistant • Oxbow ($25k) to fund a Part -Time Program Specialist • Transfers/New Debt ($713k) The County will begin making debt service payments on the Energy Efficiency project and the jail Security System in the coming year. These increases are offset by a reduction in utilities ($203k) • Create a challenge grant for the Economic Development Council based on performance ($50,000) 26 13 2/a/2o17 Future Challenges Unfunded Infrastructure • Road Repaving • Stormwater • Port/Airport • Capital Needs Sheriff's Office • Vehicle Replacement over five years • Compensation County Compensation and Benefits Unfunded Mandates • Medicaid • Florida Retirement System COUNTY n i L 0 R D 27 28 14 2/8/2017 PS Future Meetings to Discuss: • Strategy Map • County Vision and Mission • County 2017-2018 Strategic Priorities and Initiatives 29 15